Valuing the benefits of coastal water quality improvements using contingent and real behaviour

Recent moves in the European Union have been made towards a toughening of legislation on bathing water quality. This has focussed policy-makers thoughts on the welfare benefits resulting from such improvements, especially given their cost. Our paper uses a combined stated and revealed preference approach to value coastal water quality improvements, focussing on an area of Scotland which has consistently failed to meet standards under the Bathing Waters Directive. We combine data on real behaviour with data on contingent behaviour using a random effects negative binomial panel model. This allows us to predict both the change in participation (trips) should water quality be improved, and the welfare increase per trip. Our model includes allowance for the existence of substitute sites, and for changes in recreational behaviour during a beach visit.