Trends in the specialist workforce in paediatrics in Australia, 1981-1997

Objective: The Royal Australasian College of Physicians has conducted periodic workforce censuses of Fellows practising paediatric medicine in Australia since 1981. The aim of this study was to document trends in the supply of paediatricians and to project these trends into the early 21st century. Methodology: Time series analysis using least squares regression. Results: The paediatric consultant workforce in Australia increased in a linear manner from 374 in 1981 to 777 in 1997. If this trend persists, the number of paediatricians will grow by 62% to 1255 in 2016. The ratio of population aged 0-14 years per paediatrician fell from 9960:1 in 1981 to 5040:1 in 1997. The projected national decline in the child population will result in a ratio of 3050 children per paediatrician in the year 2016. The proportion of women in the paediatric workforce was 22.4% in 1997 and is projected to rise to at least 36% by 2016. The proportion aged 50 years and older rose from 22% in 1981 to 33.6% in 1997 and is projected to be 45% by the year 2016. The average total weekly working hours fell from 58.2 in 1984 to 53.4 in 1997. The proportion practising in regional centres rose from 12 to 17.9%. Conclusions: The paediatric workforce in Australia has grown rapidly over the past 16 years. If this trend continues, the ratio of child population per paediatrician will continue to fall, acccentuated by the projected decline in the child population. The trends towards an ageing workforce with an increasing proportion of women, declining workings hours and rising proportion practising in regional centres are expected to continue unless workforce intake or retirement change dramatically.