Explaining Japan's response to geopolitical vulnerability

Elite and public doubts in Japan about the country's economic and security relationships with both the United States and China, changes in the regional threat environment and the enhanced influence of revisionist conservatives in leadership positions over the past five years make conditions ripe for more muscular internal and external balancing by Japan. Despite this, recent changes to Japan's overall grand strategy and military posture remain incremental and focused on longer-term transformation. We argue that despite a degree of convergence in threat perceptions between the Japanese public and elites-and despite a greater tolerance of debate on controversial security issues-the increased political influence of revisionist conservatives arouses suspicion owing to the interlinkages between their political, social and security agendas. This, in turn, the article argues, complicates moves towards a more robust, responsive and flexible Japanese deterrence posture and an approach to alliance deepening suitable for minimizing contemporary geopolitical vulnerability and risk.