Use of a convolutional neural network-based mammographic evaluation to predict breast cancer recurrence among women with hormone receptor-positive operable breast cancer

Purpose We evaluated whether a novel, fully automated convolutional neural network (CNN)-based mammographic evaluation can predict breast cancer relapse among women with operable hormone receptor (HR)-positive breast cancer. Methods We conducted a retrospective cohort study among women with stage I-III, HR-positive unilateral breast cancer diagnosed at Columbia University Medical Center from 2007 to 2017, who received adjuvant endocrine therapy and had at least two mammograms (baseline, annual follow-up) of the contralateral unaffected breast for CNN analysis. We extracted demographics, clinicopathologic characteristics, breast cancer treatments, and relapse status from the electronic health record. Our primary endpoint was change in CNN risk score (range, 0-1). We used two-sample t-tests to assess for difference in mean CNN scores between patients who relapsed vs. remained in remission, and conducted Cox regression analyses to assess for association between change in CNN score and breast cancer-free interval (BCFI), adjusting for known prognostic factors. Results Among 848 women followed for a median of 59 months, there were 67 (7.9%) breast cancer relapses (36 distant, 25 local, 6 new primaries). There was a significant difference in mean absolute change in CNN risk score from baseline to 1-year follow-up between those who relapsed vs. remained in remission (0.001 vs. - 0.022, p = 0.030). After adjustment for prognostic factors, a 0.01 absolute increase in CNN score at 1-year was significantly associated with BCFI, hazard ratio = 1.05 (95% Confidence Interval 1.01-1.09, p = 0.011). Conclusion Short-term change in the CNN-based breast cancer risk model on adjuvant endocrine therapy predicts breast cancer relapse, and warrants further evaluation in prospective studies.