URBAN RESIDENTIAL AREA SPRAWL SIMULATION OF METROPOLITAN "SUBURBANIZATION" TREND IN BEIJING

Recently, numerous metropolis has been experiencing from "urbanization" to "Sub-urbanization" development paradigm. For the crowded Beijing, the high population unipolar concentration and mismatch of resources has in further aggravated the contradiction between inhabitants and land. In this research, the method has been proposed a method in which the driving policy was embedded into simulation mechanism quantitatively, to solve the problem that we can't predict the future with the rule of historical change. To reveal the driving role of policies on population mobility, and the performance of the evolutionary dynamics of immigrants on the future built-up land expansion or contraction, this research proposed a loose coupling framework between population prediction model and SLEUTH model methodologically, from population density re-distribution prediction to the simulation of built-up land used for planning. It makes it possible that human activities directly impact on the built-up land expansion or contraction.