The Cumulative Causation of International Migration in Latin America

The theory of the cumulative causation of migration posits that as migratory experience grows within a sending community, the likelihood that other community members will initiate a migratory trip increases. This diffusion is expected to vary across time and place according to differences in the mechanisms guiding this behavior. The author compares the effect of the prevalence of migratory experience on the likelihood that adult men would take a first U.S. trip between 1965 and 2001 from the Dominican Republic, Costa Rica, Mexico, Nicaragua, and Puerto Rico. Both the consistencies and inconsistencies among countries suggest that the cumulative causation of migration is an important dynamic in perpetuating migration, although it does not contribute equally to all migration streams. In all countries except Nicaragua, as more members of a community gain U.S. migration experience, other nonmigrant community members are increasingly likely to take a first U.S. trip. In Nicaragua, U.S. migration was mainly driven by the Contra War and U.S. political asylum extended during that time.