Modeling maneuver dynamics in air traffic conflict resolution

Much of the previous literature on conflict resolution is based on instantaneous maneuver models, in which speed and/or heading change dynamics are unmodeled. The effects of the actual maneuver dynamics on the resulting minimum separation are analyzed, and a simple numerical algorithm is presented to compensate for those effects. The focus is on level flight in the horizontal plane. Speed changes are modeled as periods of constant along-track acceleration or deceleration, and heading changes are modeled as steady turns of constant rate and radius. These simple kinematic (constrained point-mass) models improve on the resolution accuracy that results from modeling speed and heading changes as instantaneous, but they yield much simpler solutions than general point-mass dynamic models. The accuracy improvement is minor for most heading-change maneuvers, but it is substantial for most speed-change maneuvers. An important operational benefit of the algorithm is that it detects immediately if a conflict is too close to be resolved by a particular maneuver. A method is also outlined for determining the optimal combination of speed and heading change to resolve conflicts. With minor adaptation, the algorithms can also make use of an existing conflict probability estimation algorithm to determine maneuvers for strategic conflict probability reduction.