CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CROP PRODUCTION IN PUNJAB, PAKISTAN

This piece of research was aimed at examining the impact of climate variability on major crops of the Punjab province, of Pakistan in terms of sizes and irrigated and non-irrigated configuration of farms. A cross sectional data of 345 farms was collected from 25 districts of the province during the year 2016. The time series data of climatic variables like temperature, rainfall and humidity was retrieved from Meteorology Department during 1981-2016. Ricardian regressions were employed to filter down the impact or climatic and non-climatic variables on Net Farm Revenue (NFR). Moreover, the marginal impacts of NFR were estimated with reference to change in temperature, precipitation and humidity. In line with other climate impact studies, both hill-shaped and Ushaped NFR functions were identified in most of the situations. Median Ricardian regression identified yearly marginal decreasing trend on NFR due to increase in maximum and minimum temperature, rainfall and humidity. In case of Rabi-Kharif configuration of climatic variables, NFR showed an increase of $654.67 per hectare with the increase of 1 degrees C Rabi maximum temperature. Non-irrigated farms were confronting a decrease of $2583.18 under the same specification. Increase in Rabi rainfall was found to be positively linked to NFR, while 1 mm/month increase in Kharif rainfall would earn a loss of $32.72 per hectare. These models identified that with the increase of 1 degrees C in winter and summer maximum temperatures; there would be decrease in NFR by $ 1608.49 and $ 1479.24 respectively. ICT based advisory services may be started and strengthened to successfully implement adaptation strategies particularly in districts where irrigation water is short and the pattern of rainfall is highly erratic.