Trends and population-attributable risk estimates for predictors of early neonatal mortality in Nigeria, 2003-2013: a cross-sectional analysis

Objectives To assess trends in early neonatal mortality (ENM) and population-attributable risk (PAR) estimates for predictors of ENM in Nigeria. Design, setting and participants A cross-sectional data on 63 844 singleton live births within the preceding 5 years from the 2003, 2008 and 2013 Nigeria Demographic and Health Surveys were used. Adjusted PARs were used to estimate the number of early neonatal deaths attributable to each predictor in the final multivariable Cox regression model. Main outcome measures ENM, defined as the death of a live-born singleton between birth and 6 days of life. Results The ENM rate slightly declined from 30.5 (95% CI 26.1 to 34.9) to 26.1 (CI 24.3 to 27.9) during the study period. Approximately 36 746 (CI 14 656 to 56 920) and 37 752 (CI 23 433 to 51 126) early neonatal deaths were attributable to rural residence and male sex, respectively. Other significant predictors of ENM included small neonates (attributable number: 25 884, CI 19 172 to 31 953), maternal age <20 years (11 708, CI 8521 to 17 042), caesarean section (6312, CI 4260 to 8521) and birth order <= 4 with a short birth interval (<= 2 years) (18 929, CI 12 781 to 25 563)). Conclusions To improve early neonatal survival in Nigeria, community-based interventions are needed for small neonates, and to promote delayed first pregnancy, child spacing and timely referral for sick male neonates and caesarean delivery.