Analysis of future carbon-neutral energy system-The case of Vaxjo Municipality, Sweden

In line with the Swedish target of carbon neutrality by 2045, the municipality of Va & BULL;xjo & BULL; in Kronoberg County has set its own target to be carbon neutral in 2030. Currently, the Municipality's partially decentralized energy system relies heavily on interconnected electricity supply from the national grid, and fuels imports from other parts of Sweden. Under this circumstance, several concerns arise, including: in which ways future demand changes induce supply changes, and whether a future carbon-neutral energy system will be less costly in a sustained-electricity supply condition. In this study, techno-economic evaluations are conducted for different carbon-neutral scenarios for Va & BULL;xjo & BULL;'s future energy system in 2030 and 2050, using an hour-by-hour dynamic energy simulation tool of EnergyPLAN. Projections for the future energy demands for Va & BULL;xjo & BULL; were developed and modeled, based on the development strategies and on the national sustainable future scenarios in Sweden. Re-sults for the Va & BULL;xjo & BULL;'s carbon-neutral scenarios showed that the current energy system is sufficient to satisfy future heat demand. However, fulfilling demands of electricity for all sectors and fuels for transport and industry is a challenge. In the short term and at increased energy demand and price, being carbon neutral is technically viable without major changes in energy supply technologies. However, in the long term, investment for intermittent renewable energy resources, together with carbon capture and storage is considered to be viable financially. Therefore, planning for a carbon-neutral Va & BULL;xjo & BULL; based on local investments showed to be a feasible strategy.