Design of local fuzzy models using evolutionary algorithms

The application of local fuzzy models to determine the remaining life of a unit in a fleet of vehicles is described. Instead of developing individual models based on the track history of each unit or developing a global model based on the collective track history of the fleet, local fuzzy models are used based on clusters of peers-similar units with comparable utilization and performance characteristics. A local fuzzy performance model is created for each cluster of peers. This is combined with an evolutionary framework to maintain the models. A process has been defined to generate a collection of competing models, evaluate their performance in light of the currently available data, refine the best models using evolutionary search, and select the best one after a finite number of iterations. This process is repeated periodically to automatically update and improve the overall model. To illustrate this methodology an asset selection problem has been identified: given a fleet of industrial vehicles (diesel electric locomotives), select the best subset for mission-critical utilization. To this end, the remaining life of each unit in the fleet is predicted. The fleet is then sorted using this prediction and the highest ranked units are selected. A series of experiments using data from locomotive operations was conducted and the results from an initial validation exercise are presented. The approach of constructing local predictive models using fuzzy similarity with neighboring points along appropriate dimensions is not specific to any asset type and may be applied to any problem where the premise of similarity along chosen attribute dimensions implies similarity in predicted future behavior. (C) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.