This study illustrates opportunities for much improved orographic quantitative precipitation forecasting, determination of orographic cloud seedability, and flash flood prediction through state-of-the-art remote sensing and numerical modeling of gravity wave clouds. Wintertime field observations with multiple remote sensors, corroborated in this and related papers with a mesoscale-cloud scale numerical simulation, confirm that storm-embedded gravity waves can have a strong and persistent influence on orographic cloud liquid water (CLW) and precipitation. Where parallel mountain ridges dominate the landscape, an upwind ridge can force the wave action, and a downwind ridge can receive the precipitation; The 1995 Arizona Program was conducted in such terrain. In the scenario examined, traveling waves cyclically caused prefrontal cross-barrier winds that produced gravity waves. Significant cloud bands associated with the waves carried substantial moisture to the area. With the passage and waning of the cloud bands, vapor influxes (precipitable water P-w) cycled through large changes in magnitude, and prefrontal peaks in P-w. coincided with the gravity waves in a succession of episodes during a five-day period. Thus, the cyclic trend in P-w and the magnitudes of peak P-w were simple indicators of wave cloud development. The first two cycles, with minor peak P-w, were precursors. Significant wave clouds first appeared during the second episode. During the final two episodes with large vapor influxes, very deep, precipitating wave clouds were coupled with underlying clouds formed in how up the mountain slopes to create the prefrontal storms. Rain fell on an existing snowpack on the main recipient ridge and, in the end, produced rapid runoff and flash flooding. The gravity waves persistently condensed CLW that averaged 0.5 mm and reached 1.0 mm in the first of the main storm episodes, and averaged 1.0 mm and reached 2.0 mm and more in the second (column-integrated values). These values equaled or exceeded the larger of those represented in liquid water climate datasets for orographic cloud systems in other locations in the West, where only the upslope and not the wave component had been examined. The effect of shifts between cross-barrier and barrier-parallel flows was reflected in abrupt buildups and declines in wave CLW but the gravity wave clouds persisted for a total of 22 h during the two storm periods. In the wave updrafts, the condensation rate regularly exceeded the consumption rate by ice, even though ice was usually present. Conversion to ice consumed and precipitated wave CLW. Pulses of available P-w and wave CLW on a 2- to 4-h timescale, cyclically followed by partial glaciation, produced the precipitation from the wave clouds. Their seeder effect on the upslope feeder clouds was to enhance the total precipitation from the coupled system. Estimates of the liquid water fluxes in comparison with the precipitation rates suggest precipitation efficiencies in the 11%-33% range from the seeder-feeder couplets. The periods of gravity wave forcing contributed some 80% or more of the total precipitation, and trailing fronts produced the remainder. Several factors derived from the observed availability of CLW determine the potential for precipitation enhancement by seeding wave clouds; these are enumerated. Given demands for improved water supply, the challenge often presented in mountain watersheds of separating seeding opportunities from potential flash hood situations is examined. The results here show that storms that could threaten flash floods can be readily identified by continuous monitoring with polarization radar and in real-time simulations as those with the altitude of the melting level above the elevation of the highest terrain with existing snowpack. In the sense that orographically generated gravity waves will significantly influence cloud water and precipitation, geographic transferability of the results is indicated by the existence of wave-generating and precipitation-generating parallel ridges in many places throughout the world. The quantitative effects will, of course, depend on particulars of the locale such as nature of the prevalent forcing, available moisture, and physical stature of the ridges.
