The Effect of Optimism Bias on the Decision to Terminate Failing Projects

被引:47
作者
Meyer, Werner G. [1 ]
机构
[1] SKEMA Business Sch, Euralille, France
关键词
escalation of commitment; decision making; optimism bias; portfolio management; SUNK COSTS; BIG MUDDY; ESCALATING COMMITMENT; PROSPECT-THEORY; CHOSEN COURSE; KNEE-DEEP; COMPLETION; INFORMATION; PSYCHOLOGY; DETERMINANTS;
D O I
10.1002/pmj.21435
中图分类号
C93 [管理学];
学科分类号
12 ; 1201 ; 1202 ; 120202 ;
摘要
This research presents the findings from an experiment that investigated to what extent decision makers suffer from optimism bias when escalating a commitment to failing projects; 345 individuals, involved in project decision making, participated in the experiment. A new form of optimism bias, namely post-project optimism bias, is defined. Post-project optimism bias is an overly optimistic belief that a project will deliver better business benefits than what was planned or that can be proven. It is further confirmed that both post-project and in-project optimism biases have significant effects on the escalation of commitment to failing projects.
引用
收藏
页码:7 / 20
页数:14
相关论文
共 78 条
[1]   LEARNED HELPLESSNESS IN HUMANS - CRITIQUE AND REFORMULATION [J].
ABRAMSON, LY ;
SELIGMAN, MEP ;
TEASDALE, JD .
JOURNAL OF ABNORMAL PSYCHOLOGY, 1978, 87 (01) :49-74
[2]  
[Anonymous], 2011, The Green Book - Appraisal and Evaluation in Central Government
[3]   THE PSYCHOLOGY OF SUNK COST [J].
ARKES, HR ;
BLUMER, C .
ORGANIZATIONAL BEHAVIOR AND HUMAN DECISION PROCESSES, 1985, 35 (01) :124-140
[4]   THE AMBIGUOUS NATURE OF FORECASTS IN PROJECT EVALUATION - DIAGNOSING THE OVER-OPTIMISM OF RATE-OF-RETURN ANALYSIS [J].
ASCHER, W .
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF FORECASTING, 1993, 9 (01) :109-115
[5]   I WON THE AUCTION BUT DONT WANT THE PRIZE [J].
BAZERMAN, MH ;
SAMUELSON, WF .
JOURNAL OF CONFLICT RESOLUTION, 1983, 27 (04) :618-634
[6]   Expectancy theory [J].
Bhattacharya, Ananyo .
NATURE, 2010, 464 (7287) :456-456
[7]  
BHP Billiton, 2009, SAL RAV NICK OP
[8]  
British TaxPayers' Alliance, 2009, OUT CONTR GOV OV CAP
[9]   FACE-SAVING AND ENTRAPMENT [J].
BROCKNER, J ;
RUBIN, JZ ;
LANG, E .
JOURNAL OF EXPERIMENTAL SOCIAL PSYCHOLOGY, 1981, 17 (01) :68-79
[10]   ESCALATION OF COMMITMENT TO AN INEFFECTIVE COURSE OF ACTION - THE EFFECT OF FEEDBACK HAVING NEGATIVE IMPLICATIONS FOR SELF-IDENTITY [J].
BROCKNER, J ;
HOUSER, R ;
BIRNBAUM, G ;
LLOYD, K ;
DEITCHER, J ;
NATHANSON, S ;
RUBIN, JZ .
ADMINISTRATIVE SCIENCE QUARTERLY, 1986, 31 (01) :109-126