This study develops and uses for forecast a small-scale macro-econometric model of the Nigerian economy. The effects of three policy scenarios built around the assumptions of the changes that the Central Bank of Nigeria is likely to make to the Monetary Policy Rate are proposed and analyzed. Trade-off among the scenarios is identified in terms of their potential impacts on key macroeconomic indicators like inflation, exchange rate, output and lending rate. The results show that the monetary authority has to make a choice between the objectives of maintaining a stable exchange rate and lowering the lending rate. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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Inst Math & Informat, Appl Stat Dept, Akad 4-604, LT-08663 Vilnius, LithuaniaInst Math & Informat, Appl Stat Dept, Akad 4-604, LT-08663 Vilnius, Lithuania
Rudzkis, Rimantas
Kvedaras, Virmantas
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Vilnius Univ, Dept Quantitat Methods & Modelling, LT-10222 Vilnius, LithuaniaInst Math & Informat, Appl Stat Dept, Akad 4-604, LT-08663 Vilnius, Lithuania
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Cent Bank Republ Turkey, Res Dept, Istiklal Caddesi 10, TR-06100 Ankara, TurkeyCent Bank Republ Turkey, Res Dept, Istiklal Caddesi 10, TR-06100 Ankara, Turkey
Aysoy, Cem
Kipici, Ahmet N.
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Cent Bank Republ Turkey, Res Dept, Istiklal Caddesi 10, TR-06100 Ankara, TurkeyCent Bank Republ Turkey, Res Dept, Istiklal Caddesi 10, TR-06100 Ankara, Turkey