The Development of Theory-Driven Evaluation in the Military Theory on the Front Line

The use of theory-driven evaluation is an emerging practice in the military-an aspect generally unknown in the civilian evaluation community. First developed during the 1991 Gulf War and applied in both the Balkans and Afghanistan, these techniques are now being examined in the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) as a means to evaluate the effects of military operations in complex, asymmetric conflict environments. In spite of these practices, theory-driven evaluation in the military is still in the developmental stages. This article traces the development to date of theory-driven evaluation in NATO and assesses its strengths and weaknesses in the military context. We conclude that a cross-pollination of ideas between military and civilian evaluators is urgently needed to improve the quality and effectiveness of military evaluation.