Understanding the 2011 Ugandan elections: the contribution of public opinion surveys

In the run up to Uganda's 2011 election, five public opinion surveys carried out by three different research firms found that President Yoweri Museveni would win between 64% and 70% of the vote, which closely matched the eventual electoral outcome. By revealing opinions and attitudes of would-be voters, opinion surveys shed light on some key aspects of the electoral process and its result in Uganda. First, they highlight the wide gap between the National Resistance Movement (NRM) and the opposition in terms of recognition, affection and capacity for grassroots mobilization. Second, they reveal a disconnect between the opposition's denunciatory campaign message and would-be voters' more positive appreciation of their political and socio-economic situation. Finally, surveys highlight the importance of material benefits to voters, as well as their serious concerns about possible electoral violence, which both played in the NRM's favor as patronage and control of the security agenda have been cornerstones of its rule. While polls help understand how voter support was induced, they also raise questions about its durability, as pre-electoral optimism soured reflecting a deterioration in the post-electoral economic situation.