Multi-scenario simulation of desertification in North China for 2030

Since desertification threatens the global environment and the security of societies, predicting its patterns and trends across space and time would inform policy-making strategies for desertification control and sustainable development. China is among the countries most severely affected by desertification, representing 17.93% of its total land area. To better understand the future dynamics of desertification in China, a spatial system dynamics model that coupled natural and human factors was developed to simulate the desertification process in North China in 2030 under nine scenarios. The results showed the model had good applicability and satisfactory accuracy for desertification simulation at the national scale, for which temperature and rainfall were the most sensitive factors driving the process. Current ecological projects and policies were found to be effective for desertification control, which would lead to reversal of desertification in 2030 when coupled with average predicted climate conditions; further, this reversal trend would be accelerated under a humid climate scenario. Although positive ecological policies would promote the reversal of desertification, only a 5% increase of rehabilitated area was obtained when it was coupled with an arid climatic conditions. The latter (aridity) and a passive ecological protection policy would together accelerate desertification expansion, especially in the Yili Basin, in the Houshan region of Inner Mongolia and the Yinchuan Plain. Thus, the ecological projects and policies should be carried on in the long-term to achieve sustainable control and help prevent desertification.