Regional specialization of China's agricultural production

China's international trade growth in agricultural products is even slower than for manufactures, and the implications for regional specialization in agriculture could be significant. Compared with merchandise trade, the nominal value of agricultural exports and imports grew considerably slower from 1980 to 1999, at average annual rates of 6.6 and 5.0%, respectively. Growth in the real value of agricultural trade averaged only 2% annually, from 1980 to 1999-less than half the growth rate of the real value of agricultural output. Clearly, the liberalization of agricultural trade has proceeded much slower than manufacturing in China. Significant tariff and non-tariff barriers remain on food and beverages (U.S. Trade Representative). These observations prompt an interest in whether agricultural production is becoming more regionally specialized in China to better capture its comparative advantage. This paper examines the extent of regional specialization in agriculture in China and identifies trends in specialization from 1981 to 1999. We do this using an approach different from that used by Young. Drawing on the new economic geography literature (Krugman, Kim), this paper measures the economic geography of agricultural production in China and the changing pattern of spatial concentration.