A Spatio-temporal Scenario Model for Emergency Decision

A structural and quantitative representation of disaster status contributes to efficient emergency decision-making, for this purpose, a representation model for disaster status is developed in this paper, called spatio-temporal scenario model (short for STSM model). Concept of the term 'scenario' is discussed at first. Then, based on the concept, STSM model is proposed and introduced in detail. It contains two components: developing scenario connotation and developing spatio-temporal framework. Scenario connotation is to develop representation of disaster status of each object, consisting of object representation and damage representation. Spatio-temporal framework is to develop representation of evolution of disaster status, consisting of representation of spatial relation, temporal relation, natural environment and emergency response. Finally, an example is provided to show the effectiveness of STSM model. Advantages of the developed model lie in four aspects: flexibility in describing dynamic disaster status; universal representation of disaster status contributing to similarity assessment; helping in evaluating emergency severity with the quantitative representation of disaster status. Moreover, it helps decision-makers obtain a more comprehensive representation for disaster evolution in a certain time space.