Climate change, diapause termination and zooplankton population dynamics: an experimental and modelling approach

1. Earlier spring warming as predicted for climate change will alter combinations of water temperature and photoperiod that act as emergence cues for zooplankton resting stages. As a result, water temperature cue thresholds will be experienced at shorter photoperiods, a variable independent of weather variations. Also, light intensity, another potentially important cue for zooplankton emergence, could decrease in many lakes if symptoms of climate change resemble those of eutrophication. 2. We designed a laboratory experiment to test the effects of three factors, temperature (6, 9 and 12 degrees C), photoperiod (13L : 11D and 16L : 8D) and light intensity (20 and 35 mu E m(-2) s(-1)) on hatchling abundance and timing of hatching of daphniids (Daphnia ambigua) and rotifers (Keratella spp. and Synchaeta pectinata) from resting eggs. Further, we investigated the implications of potential changes in hatching dynamics, following variations in hatching cues, on zooplankton spring population development using predator-prey simulation models. 3. For hatchling abundance and timing of hatching, photoperiod had a significant effect for D. ambigua but not rotifers. Daphnia ambigua hatchling abundance decreased by 50% when incubated at conditions mimicking early spring (12 degrees C + 13-h photoperiod) compared to a later spring (12 degrees C + 16-h photoperiod). Light intensity has a significant effect only for S. pectinata, producing greater hatchling abundance at lower light intensity. 4. Simulation models suggest that in contrast to a later spring, an early warming produces a shift in spring zooplankton community composition, from daphniid to rotifer dominance. These patterns are primarily driven by differential zooplankton emergence response with variations in temperature-photoperiod cues. 5. Overall, our laboratory experiments and simulation models suggest that lakes with strong dependence on the 'resting egg-bank', characteristic of many shallow north-temperate lakes or in years with low winter survivorship of adult zooplankton, may be most susceptible to climate change. Further, fewer large grazers such as daphniids with an earlier spring may result in less control of cyanobacterial blooms in eutrophic lakes.