Dairy Energy Prediction (DEP) model: A tool for predicting energy use and related emissions and costs in dairy farms

The need of reducing energy consumption in agriculture through more efficient working methods came first into focus in the 1970s as a consequence of oil crisis and the sharp increase of the energy price. Today, besides the economic issues, other aspects connected to a large use of fossil energies are becoming prominent: the depletion of nonrenewable resources and the pollution of the environment. The consumption of direct energy, as fuels and electricity, in dairy farming is a source of greenhouse gas emissions and contributes significantly to increasing the carbon footprint of milk. The objectives of this study were: (a) to build linear models to estimate the consumption of diesel fuel and electricity in dairy farms; (b) to develop a calculation tool in order to assess efficiency indicators associated to energy consumption, emissions of carbon dioxide and energy costs in dairy farms. Data used in the model development were collected from 285 dairy farms located in southern Italy. Two linear regression models were developed using total fuel (TF, kg year and electricity consumption (TE, kW h year(-1)) as responses and total number of heads, total number of lactating cows, milk produced, and cultivated land as primary independent variables. Model's parameters were then implemented in a spread sheet to develop the Dairy Energy Prediction (DEP) tool. Entering some basic information about dairy farms characteristics, DEP is able to predict diesel fuel and electricity consumptions, to list several Energy Utilization Indices (EUIs), to estimate carbon dioxide emissions from energy uses (kg CO2-eq), to evaluate the costs of energy purchase. DEP may be used by farmers, to evaluate the energy performances of their farms, and by researchers and stakeholders to compare the impact of different energy scenarios (i.e. LCA studies, economic evaluation, environmental assessment, etc.). (C) 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.