Excess returns in the spot market for bulk carriers

The present study investigates the excess return dynamics between time charter (t/c) trip charters and their underlying voyage charters in the dry bulk market. Using a weekly data set over the period January 2003 to January 2014, we first examine the existence of a long-term co-integrating relationship between trip charters and their respective voyages expressed in Time Charter Equivalents. Then we develop a new methodology based on technical analysis in order to identify excess return signals and form a trading strategy. The results show that our approach outperforms the benchmark strategy of always chartering in vessels on t/c trip charters and perform the underlying voyage charters. Our analysis can be used by ship operating companies as a guide to select voyages with the highest probability of excess returns and adapt their chartering strategies accordingly.