Comparing glycemic indicators of prediabetes: a prospective study of obese Latino Youth

Objective One hour (1-hr) glucose during an oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) is an emerging biomarker for type 2 diabetes. We compared the predictive power of 1-hr glucose to traditional glycemic markers for prospectively identifying prediabetes in youth. Research design and methods Obese normoglycemic Latino youth (N = 116) were assessed at baseline for glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c), fasting, 1-hr, and 2-hr glucose during an OGTT and were followed for up to 8 yr for the development of prediabetes. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were used and a multivariable prediction model was developed. Results The area under the 1-hr glucose ROC curve was the most powerful predictor of prediabetes over time [0.73, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.64-0.83]. However, combining all indicators into a single model was superior to individual marker models (0.77, 95% CI = 0.690.86). Conclusions These results further support the utility of 1-hr glucose during an OGTT as a prospective marker of diabetes risk in youth.