Predicting future changes in temperature and precipitation in arid climate of Kutch, Gujarat: analyses based on LARS-WG model

Keeping in mind the challenge of climate change faced by mankind in the 21st century, this study attempts to analyse and predict changes in critical climatic variables (rainfall and temperature) to develop strategies and make informed decisions about the future water allocation for different sectors and manage available water resources. The aim of this study is to verify the skills of LARS-WG in simulating weather data in arid climate of Kutch, Gujarat, and predict and analyse the future changes in them for the near (2011-2030), medium (2046-2065) and far (2080-2099) future periods. Data utilised, for this study, are daily rainfall, maximum and minimum temperature for the period of 1969-2013. LARS-WG is found to show reasonably good (excellent) skill in downscaling daily rainfall (temperature). The downscaled precipitation indicated no coherent change trends among various global climate models (GCMs) predictions for near, medium and far future periods. Ensemble means of rainfall predictions from 7 GCMs indicated 9-17% increase in monsoon (JJAS) rainfall compared to the base line during medium future; however, in the far future this increase is predicted to be reduced and remain in the range 3-12%. Winter minimum temperature is predicted to increase by 0.6-1 degrees C during 2011-2030; for 2046-2065 and 2080-2099 this increase is predicted to be around 3.0 degrees C and 5.0 degrees C respectively. Summer maximum temperature is predicted to increase by 0.10.2 degrees C during 2011-2030; for 2046-2065 and 20802099 this increase is predicted to be around 1.1-1.5 degrees C and around 3.0 degrees C respectively.