Land use and forest cover projections for the United States: 1997-2050

Findings from the 2000 RPA Assessment indicate that approximately 20-25 million acres of U.S. forestland could be converted to urban and other developed uses over the next 50 years if historical trends continue. Such land use conversions would further fragment forests, reduce opportunities for storage of carbon in forest, and also impact provision of other goods and services. The U.S. population is projected to grow by more than another 120 million people by 2050, with relatively fast growth rates in the key timber supply regions of the South and Pacific Northwest. In addition to a reduction of four percent in U.S. private timberland, forest cover dynamics are projected to significantly change the composition of forests, especially in the eastern U.S. The largest forest cover changes result from intensification of forestry practices in the southern U.S., where the area of pine plantations is projected to increase by more than 50% over the next fifty years. Although areas of softwoods are projected to increase across many regions of the country, especially on forest industry lands, hardwoods will remain the dominant forest type on private lands. Projected area changes for forest cover types differ notably by region. Land use and land cover dynamics will directly or indirectly contribute to sustainability of forest resources. In addition to changes in the biologic composition of forests, changing landowner demographics including increasing numbers of owners and changing management objectives will also impact the forests.