Estimating the early household market for light-duty hydrogen-fuel-cell vehicles and other "Mobile Energy" innovations in California: A constraints analysis

Facing stiff competition from conventional and gasoline-hybrid vehicles, the commercialization prospects for hydrogen-fuel-cell vehicles (H(2)FCVs) are uncertain. Starting from the premise that new consumer value must drive their adoption, early markets for H(2)FCVs are explored in the context of a group of promising opportunities collectively called mobile energy (ME) innovation. An estimate of the initial market potential for ME-enabled vehicles is produced by applying various constraints that eliminate unlikely households from consideration for early adoption of H(2)FCVs and other ME technologies (such as plug-in hybrids). Currently 5.2 million of 33.9 million Californians live in households pre-adapted to ME-enabled vehicles, 33.9 million if natural gas is required for home refueling. Several differences in demographic and other characteristics between the target market and the population as a whole are highlighted, and two issues related to the design of H(2)FCVs and their supporting infrastructure are discussed: vehicle range and home hydrogen refueling. These findings argue for continued investigation of this and similar target segments-which represent more efficient research populations for subsequent study by product designers and other decision-makers wishing to understand the early market dynamics facing H(2)FCVs and related ME innovations. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.