Development of an operational ice dynamics model for the Canadian Ice Service

This paper describes an ice dynamics model that has been under development at the Canadian Ice Service (CIS). The model includes Hibler's viscous plastic theology, a Particle-In-Cell (PIC) approach to model ice advection, and a Zhang-Hibler scheme to solve the momentum equations. A scheme for modelling the evolution of thickness distribution is devised to keep track of level and deformed ice. Implementation of the model is carried out using spherical coordinates. Interfaces are specially designed for running the model in a coupled mode with ocean and thermodynamics modules. Thus, the model can be run in a coupled mode. The main features of the model were chosen to achieve the operational requirements for accuracy, efficiency, and standard interfaces with CIS databases. Results of a seasonal forecast of the ice cover along the East Coast of Canada are compared to observations. The comparisons indicate that model performance is appropriate, although quantitative estimates of errors are difficult to determine.