Ethanol production in Brazil: An assessment of main drivers with MCMC generalized linear mixed models

被引:7
|
作者
Martins, Andre Luis [1 ]
Wanke, Peter [1 ]
Chen, Zhongfei [2 ]
Zhang, Ning [2 ]
机构
[1] Univ Fed Rio de Janeiro, COPPEAD Grad Sch Business, Rua Paschoal Lemme 355, BR-21949900 Rio De Janeiro, Brazil
[2] Jinan Univ, China Ctr Econ Dev & Innovat Strategy Res, Coll Econ, 601 Huangpu West Rd, Guangzhou 510632, Guangdong, Peoples R China
关键词
Ethanol; Brazil; GLMM; MCMC; OIL; PRICES; SUGAR; VOLATILITY; IMPACT; FUEL;
D O I
10.1016/j.resconrec.2018.01.016
中图分类号
X [环境科学、安全科学];
学科分类号
08 ; 0830 ;
摘要
This paper analyses the production of ethanol in Brazil using an extensive, plant-based, ethanol and sugar production database, including multiple variables involved in the ethanol production chain. To this end, a generalized mixed model was used with the Markov Chain and Monte Carlo methods by applying the MCMCg1mm package in the R software environment. The results obtained not only confirmed the expected signs between ethanol production and its major drivers or contextual variables, but also shed light in terms of their relative importance and their nature: whether structural, conjunctural or exogenous. The main conclusions of this paper are that the contextual variables that contribute the most to the increase in ethanol production in Brazil were, in order of importance, sugarcane milling, sugar production, and the price ratios between ethanol and sugar. Policy implications to the sector are derived.
引用
收藏
页码:16 / 27
页数:12
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