Geomagnetic secular variation forecast using the NASA GEMS ensemble Kalman filter: A candidate SV model for IGRF-13

被引：6

作者：

Tangborn, Andrew ^{[1
]}

Kuang, Weijia ^{[2
]}

Sabaka, Terence J. ^{[2
]}

Yi, Ce ^{[2
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Maryland Baltimore Cty, Joint Ctr Earth Syst Technol, Baltimore, MD 21228 USA

[2] Goddard Space Flight Ctr, Geodesy & Geophys Lab, Greenbelt, MD USA

来源：

EARTH PLANETS AND SPACE | 2021年 / 73卷 / 01期

关键词：

Geomagnetic Secular Variation; Data Assimilation; Geodynamo Model;

D O I：

10.1186/s40623-020-01324-w

中图分类号：

P [天文学、地球科学];

学科分类号：

07 ;

摘要：

We have produced a 5-year mean secular variation (SV) of the geomagnetic field for the period 2020-2025. We use the NASA Geomagnetic Ensemble Modeling System (GEMS), which consists of the NASA Goddard geodynamo model and ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) with 400 ensemble members. Geomagnetic field models are used as observations for the assimilation, including gufm1 (1590-1960), CM4 (1961-2000) and CM6 (2001-2019). The forecast involves a bias correction scheme that assumes that the model bias changes on timescales much longer than the forecast period, so that they can be removed by successive forecast series. The algorithm was validated on the time period 2010-2015 by comparing with CM6 before being applied to the 2020-2025 time period. This forecast has been submitted as a candidate predictive model of IGRF-13 for the period 2020-2025.Graphical abstract

引用

页数：14

共 20 条

[1] Geomagnetic secular variation forecast using the NASA GEMS ensemble Kalman filter: A candidate SV model for IGRF-13
Andrew Tangborn
Weijia Kuang
Terence J. Sabaka
Ce Yi
Earth, Planets and Space, 73
[2] A secular variation candidate model for IGRF-13 based on Swarm data and ensemble inverse geodynamo modelling
Fournier, Alexandre
Aubert, Julien
Lesur, Vincent
Ropp, Guillaume
EARTH PLANETS AND SPACE, 2021, 73 (01):
[3] A secular variation candidate model for IGRF-13 based on Swarm data and ensemble inverse geodynamo modelling
Alexandre Fournier
Julien Aubert
Vincent Lesur
Guillaume Ropp
Earth, Planets and Space, 73
[4] The BGS candidate models for IGRF-13 with a retrospective analysis of IGRF-12 secular variation forecasts
William J. Brown
Ciarán D. Beggan
Grace A. Cox
Susan Macmillan
Earth, Planets and Space, 73
[5] The BGS candidate models for IGRF-13 with a retrospective analysis of IGRF-12 secular variation forecasts
Brown, William J.
Beggan, Ciaran D.
Cox, Grace A.
Macmillan, Susan
EARTH PLANETS AND SPACE, 2021, 73 (01):
[6] Geomagnetic core field models and secular variation forecasts for the 13th International Geomagnetic Reference Field (IGRF-13)
I. Wardinski
D. Saturnino
H. Amit
A. Chambodut
B. Langlais
M. Mandea
E. Thébault
Earth, Planets and Space, 72
[7] Geomagnetic core field models and secular variation forecasts for the 13th International Geomagnetic Reference Field (IGRF-13)
Wardinski, I.
Saturnino, D.
Amit, H.
Chambodut, A.
Langlais, B.
Mandea, M.
Thebault, E.
EARTH PLANETS AND SPACE, 2020, 72 (01):
[8] A candidate secular variation model for IGRF-13 based on MHD dynamo simulation and 4DEnVar data assimilation
Takuto Minami
Shin’ya Nakano
Vincent Lesur
Futoshi Takahashi
Masaki Matsushima
Hisayoshi Shimizu
Ryosuke Nakashima
Hinami Taniguchi
Hiroaki Toh
Earth, Planets and Space, 72
[9] A candidate secular variation model for IGRF-13 based on MHD dynamo simulation and 4DEnVar data assimilation
Minami, Takuto
Nakano, Shin'ya
Lesur, Vincent
Takahashi, Futoshi
Matsushima, Masaki
Shimizu, Hisayoshi
Nakashima, Ryosuke
Taniguchi, Hinami
Toh, Hiroaki
EARTH PLANETS AND SPACE, 2020, 72 (01):
[10] An IGRF candidate main geomagnetic field model for epoch 2000 and a secular variation model for 2000–2005
Benoit Langlais
Mioara Mandea
Earth, Planets and Space, 2000, 52 : 1137 - 1148

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