Streamflow drought time series forecasting: a case study in a small watershed in North West Spain

被引：44
|
作者：
Fernandez, Cristina [1 ]
Vega, Jose A. [1 ]
Fonturbel, Teresa [1 ]
Jimenez, Enrique [1 ]
机构：
[1] Conselleria Medio Ambiente & Desenvolvemento Sost, Ctr Invest & Informac Ambiental, Pontevedra 36080, Spain
来源：
STOCHASTIC ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND RISK ASSESSMENT | 2009年 / 23卷 / 08期
关键词：
Streamwater; Drought; Forecasting; Time series; Caldas catchment; MODEL; MANAGEMENT; VARIABLES;
D O I：
10.1007/s00477-008-0277-8
中图分类号：
X [环境科学、安全科学];
学科分类号：
08 ; 0830 ;
摘要：
Drought is a climatic event that can cause significant damage both in natural environment and in human lives. Drought forecasting is an important issue in water resource planning. Due to the stochastic behaviour of droughts, a multiplicative seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model was applied to forecast monthly streamflow in a small watershed in Galicia (NW Spain). A better streamflow forecast obtained when the Martone index was included in the model as explanatory variable. After forecasting 12 leading month streamflow, three drought thresholds: streamflow mean, monthly streamflow mean and standardized streamflow index were chosen. Both observed and forecasted streamflow showed no drought evidence in this basin.
引用
收藏
页码：1063 / 1070
页数：8
相关论文
共 50 条
  • [1] Streamflow drought time series forecasting: a case study in a small watershed in North West Spain
    Cristina Fernández
    José A. Vega
    Teresa Fonturbel
    Enrique Jiménez
    Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, 2009, 23 : 1063 - 1070
  • [2] Streamflow drought time series forecasting
    Modarres, Reza
    STOCHASTIC ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND RISK ASSESSMENT, 2007, 21 (03) : 223 - 233
  • [3] Streamflow drought time series forecasting
    Reza Modarres
    Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, 2007, 21 : 223 - 233
  • [4] Identification of drought periods on streamflow series at different time scales
    Cancelliere, A.
    Ancarani, A.
    Rossi, G.
    Water resources management under drought or water shortage conditions. Proc. symposium, Nicosia, 1995, 1995, : 49 - 57
  • [5] Exploring geometrical patterns in streamflow time series: utility for forecasting?
    Teegavarapu, Ramesh S., V
    HYDROLOGY RESEARCH, 2018, 49 (06): : 1724 - 1739
  • [6] Chaotic forecasting of discharge time series: A case study
    Lisi, F
    Villi, V
    JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN WATER RESOURCES ASSOCIATION, 2001, 37 (02): : 271 - 279
  • [7] A streamflow hydrograph analysis and simulation for a study case watershed
    Theofanous, Nikolaos
    Myronidis, Dimitrios
    INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF SUSTAINABLE AGRICULTURAL MANAGEMENT AND INFORMATICS, 2020, 6 (01) : 94 - 105
  • [8] Evolutionary Modeling for Streamflow Forecasting with Minimal Datasets: A Case Study in the West Malian River, China
    Ni, Qingwei
    Wang, Li
    Ye, Renzhen
    Yang, Fenglin
    Sivakumar, Muttucumaru
    ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING SCIENCE, 2010, 27 (05) : 377 - 385
  • [9] Evaluating precipitation, streamflow, and inundation forecasting skills during extreme weather events: A case study for an urban watershed
    Li, Xudong
    Rankin, Cheryl
    Gangrade, Sudershan
    Zhao, Gang
    Lander, Kris
    Voisin, Nathalie
    Shao, Manqing
    Morales-Hernandez, Mario
    Kao, Shih-Chieh
    Gao, Huilin
    JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY, 2021, 603
  • [10] Drought forecasting using artificial neural networks and time series of drought indices
    Morid, Saeid
    Smakhtin, Vladimir
    Bagherzadeh, K.
    INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, 2007, 27 (15) : 2103 - 2111
12345