Downscaled GCM projections of winter and summer mass balance for Peyto Glacier, Alberta, Canada (2000-2100) from ensemble simulations with ECHAM5-MPIOM

被引：11

作者：

Matulla, Christoph ^{[1
,2
]}

Watson, Emma ^{[2
]}

Wagner, Sebastian ^{[3
]}

Schoener, Wolfgang ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Cent Inst Meteorol & Geodynam ZAMG, A-1190 Vienna, Austria

[2] Environm Canada, Div Climate Res, Toronto, ON M3H 5T4, Canada

[3] Inst Coastal Res, GKSS Res Ctr, Sh, Germany

来源：

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY | 2009年 / 29卷 / 11期

基金：

加拿大自然科学与工程研究理事会;

关键词：

glacier mass balance; Peyto; downscaling; ensemble projections; climate change scenarios; CLIMATE-CHANGE; NORTHERN-HEMISPHERE; VARIABILITY; TEMPERATURE; FLOW; RIVER; CO2;

D O I：

10.1002/joc.1796

中图分类号：

P4 [大气科学（气象学）];

学科分类号：

0706 ; 070601 ;

摘要：

We apply a direct downscaling approach to generate ensembles of local-scale glacier mass balance projections from coarse-scale general circulation model (GCM) data. The general modes of the atmospheric circulation over a large geographical region are linked statistically to Peyto Glacier's winter and summer balance separately. Our study focuses on the generation of ensemble projections derived from simulations with ECHAM5-MPIOM forced with Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change - Special Report on Emission Scenarios (IPCC-SRES) A1B and B1. The resulting ensembles of mass balance projections show a moderate increase in winter balance and a steep decrease in summer balance. Together these results suggest Continued frontal recession and downwasting of Peyto Glacier and a shift of the equilibrium line altitude by Lit least 100 m above that estimated for the 1966-2001 period suggesting that very little of the glacier will remain by 2100. Copyright (C) 2008 Crown in the right of Canada. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

引用

页码：1550 / 1559

页数：10