Global environmental consequences of twenty-first-century ice-sheet melt

被引：273

作者：

Golledge, Nicholas R. ^{[1
,2
]}

Keller, Elizabeth D. ^{[2
]}

Gomez, Natalya ^{[3
]}

Naughten, Kaitlin A. ^{[4
]}

Bernales, Jorge ^{[5
]}

Trusel, Luke D. ^{[6
]}

Edwards, Tamsin L. ^{[7
]}

机构：

[1] Victoria Univ Wellington, Antarctic Res Ctr, Wellington, New Zealand

[2] GNS Sci, Lower Hutt, New Zealand

[3] McGill Univ, Earth & Planetary Sci, Montreal, PQ, Canada

[4] British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge, England

[5] Univ Bremen, MARUM Ctr Marine Environm Sci, Bremen, Germany

[6] Rowan Univ, Dept Geol, Glassboro, NJ USA

[7] Kings Coll London, Dept Geog, London, England

来源：

NATURE | 2019年 / 566卷 / 7742期

基金：

加拿大自然科学与工程研究理事会; 美国国家科学基金会;

关键词：

SEA-LEVEL RISE; SURFACE MASS-BALANCE; MODELS HISTORICAL BIAS; SOUTHERN-OCEAN; GROUNDING LINE; PINE ISLAND; FRESH-WATER; THERMOHALINE CIRCULATION; ISOSTATIC-ADJUSTMENT; THWAITES GLACIER;

D O I：

10.1038/s41586-019-0889-9

中图分类号：

O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];

学科分类号：

07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;

摘要：

Government policies currently commit us to surface warming of three to four degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels by 2100, which will lead to enhanced ice-sheet melt. Ice-sheet discharge was not explicitly included in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5, so effects on climate from this melt are not currently captured in the simulations most commonly used to inform governmental policy. Here we show, using simulations of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets constrained by satellite-based measurements of recent changes in ice mass, that increasing meltwater from Greenland will lead to substantial slowing of the Atlantic overturning circulation, and that meltwater from Antarctica will trap warm water below the sea surface, creating a positive feedback that increases Antarctic ice loss. In our simulations, future ice-sheet melt enhances global temperature variability and contributes up to 25 centimetres to sea level by 2100. However, uncertainties in the way in which future changes in ice dynamics are modelled remain, underlining the need for continued observations and comprehensive multi-model assessments.

引用

页码：65 / +

页数：23

共 50 条

[1] Global environmental consequences of twenty-first-century ice-sheet melt
Nicholas R. Golledge
Elizabeth D. Keller
Natalya Gomez
Kaitlin A. Naughten
Jorge Bernales
Luke D. Trusel
Tamsin L. Edwards
Nature, 2019, 566 : 65 - 72
[2] Twenty-first-century Kids, Twenty-first-century Librarians
Dunford, Helen
AUSTRALIAN LIBRARY JOURNAL, 2010, 59 (1-2): : 77 - 77
[3] Twenty-first-century challenges for environmental management
Caldwell, LK
PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION REVIEW, 2000, 60 (06) : 588 - 590
[4] Twenty-First-Century Kids, Twenty-First-Century Librarians.
Hart, Sarah J.
REFERENCE & USER SERVICES QUARTERLY, 2011, 50 (03) : 308 - 308
[5] Twenty-First-Century Kids, Twenty-First-Century Librarians.
不详
ADOLESCENCE, 2009, 44 (176) : 1048 - 1048
[6] The twenty-first-century SportsWorld: global markets and global impact
Nauright, John
Pope, Steven
SPORT IN SOCIETY, 2017, 20 (12) : 1817 - 1820
[7] The Twenty-First-Century Quest for Feminism and the Global Urban
Peake, Linda
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF URBAN AND REGIONAL RESEARCH, 2016, 40 (01) : 219 - 227
[8] Twenty-first-century leadership
Adler, NJ
RESEARCH IN GLOBAL STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT, VOL 7 - 1999: INTERNATIONAL ENTREPRENEURSHIP: GLOBALIZATION OF EMERGING BUSINESS, 1999, 7 : 173 - 190
[9] A Twenty-First-Century Renaissance
Baker, Nicholas Scott
I TATTI STUDIES, 2019, 22 (02): : 273 - 278
[10] Twenty-first-century magic
Evenden, Matthew
JOURNAL OF HISTORICAL GEOGRAPHY, 2006, 32 (04) : 864 - 870

← 1 2 3 4 5 →