Has fuel poverty changed and how should policy respond? Charting fuel poverty in Ireland from 1987 to 2015

This paper charts the incidence of fuel poverty in Ireland through the period 1987-2015 under alternative household survey-based metrics. The fuel poor population is decomposed by socioeconomic group to better understand the changing nature of fuel poverty and its determinants. Headline poverty metrics as calculated by Irish policy using a 10% income threshold correspond broadly to those calculated using alternative metrics, but subpopulation distributions differ. Those with high incomes and high fuel expenditures comprise a large share of those currently designated as fuel poor (up to 36%). A lesser but nevertheless substantial population currently designated as fuel poor have low incomes and low energy costs, a subpopulation whose vulnerabilities are perhaps better addressed through general social policy measures. I find that the incidence of fuel poverty has shifted through the analysed period. In 1987, fuel poverty was concentrated among households with a greater mix of dwelling and income-related vulnerabilities. In 2015, incidence has shifted towards those whose vulnerability is more predominantly signalled by income and sociodemographic attributes. The appropriate policy response requires a greater emphasis on tackling general material deprivation.