Convergence and Modernisation

被引:184
作者
Barro, Robert J. [1 ]
机构
[1] Harvard Univ, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA
基金
美国国家科学基金会;
关键词
PANEL-DATA MODELS; ECONOMIC-GROWTH; INCREASING RETURNS; TECHNICAL CHANGE; MONTE-CARLO; INCOME; INSTITUTIONS; INVESTMENT; DIFFUSION; DEMOCRACY;
D O I
10.1111/ecoj.12247
中图分类号
F [经济];
学科分类号
02 ;
摘要
In a country panel since 1960, the estimated annual convergence rate for GDP is 1.7%, conditional on time-varying explanatory variables. With country fixed effects, the estimated convergence rate is misleadingly high. With data starting in 1870, country fixed effects are reasonable and the estimated convergence rate is 2.6%. Combining the two estimates suggests conditional convergence close to the iron-law' rate of 2%. With post-1960 data, estimation without country fixed effects reveals positive effects of GDP and schooling on law and order and democracy - consistent with the modernisation hypothesis. With post-1870 data, estimation without or with country fixed effects indicates modernisation.
引用
收藏
页码:911 / 942
页数:32
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