Simulation of Maize Lethal Necrosis (MLN) Damage Using the CERES-Maize Model

Maize lethal necrosis (MLN), maize streak virus (MSV), grey leaf spot (GLS) and turcicum leaf blight (TLB) are among the major diseases affecting maize grain yields in sub-Saharan Africa. Crop models allow researchers to estimate the impact of pest damage on yield under different management and environments. The CERES-Maize model distributed with DSSAT v4.7 has the capability to simulate the impact of major diseases on maize crop growth and yield. The purpose of this study was to develop and test a method to simulate the impact of MLN on maize growth and yield. A field experiment consisting of 17 maize hybrids with different levels of MLN tolerance was planted under MLN virus-inoculated and non-inoculated conditions in 2016 and 2018 at the MLN Screening Facility in Naivasha, Kenya. Time series disease progress scores were recorded and translated into daily damage, including leaf necrosis and death, as inputs in the crop model. The model genetic coefficients were calibrated for each hybrid using the 2016 non-inoculated treatment and evaluated using the 2016 and 2018 inoculated treatments. Overall, the model performed well in simulating the impact of MLN damage on maize grain yield. The model gave an R-2 of 0.97 for simulated vs. observed yield for the calibration dataset and an R-2 of 0.92 for the evaluation dataset. The simulation techniques developed in this study can be potentially used for other major diseases of maize. The key to simulating other diseases is to develop the appropriate relationship between disease severity scores, percent leaf chlorosis and dead leaf area.