How will climate change affect spatial planning in agricultural and natural environments? Examples from three Dutch case study regions

Climate change will place increasing pressure on the functioning of agricultural and natural areas in the Netherlands. Strategies to adapt these areas to stress are likely to require changes in landscape structure and management. In densely populated countries such as the Netherlands, the increased pressure of climate change on agricultural and natural areas will inevitably lead, through the necessity of spatial adaptation measures, to spatial conflicts between the sectors of agriculture and nature. An integrated approach to climate change adaptation may therefore be beneficial in limiting such sectoral conflicts. We explored the conflicting and synergistic properties of different climate adaptation strategies for agricultural and natural environments in the Netherlands. To estimate the feasibility and effectiveness of the strategies, we focussed on three case study regions with contrasting landscape structural, natural and agricultural characteristics. For each region, we estimated the expected climate-related threats and associated trade-offs for arable farming and natural areas for 2040. We describe a number of spatial and integrated adaptation strategies to mitigate these threats. Formulating adaptation strategies requires consultation of different stakeholders and deliberation between different interests. We discuss some trade-offs involved in this decision-making.