A general systems approach to applying seasonal climate forecasts

Agricultural and natural ecosystems and their associated business and government systems are diverse and varied, ranging from farming systems to water resource systems to species population systems to marketing and government policy systems, among others. These systems are dynamic and responsive to fluctuations in climate. Production, profit, conservation, and policy issues provide the major focus for intervention in these systems. Risk, or the chance of incurring a financial or environmental loss, is a key factor pervading decision-making. Skill in seasonal climate forecasting offers considerable opportunities to managers via its potential to realise system improvements tie. increased profits and/or reduced risks). Realising these opportunities, however, is not straightforward as the forecasting skill is imperfect and approaches to applying the existing skill to management issues have not been developed and tested extensively. The concepts associated with a systems approach to management are presented as a suitable means to apply seasonal climate forecasting within a decision-making context. An effective application of a seasonal climate forecast is defined as use of forecast information leading to a change in a decision that generates improved outcomes in the system of interest. A simple example of tactical management of row configuration in a cotton crop on the Darling Downs, Queensland, is presented to demonstrate an effective application. The profit outcomes with a fixed tall years the same) decision, or a tactical decision based on the SOI phase, or perfect knowledge of the season were compared using a crop simulation study, Over the complete historical climate record, the tactical approach gave an average profit increase of 11%. Adopting a tactical approach, however, did not give increased profit in every year. In 80% of years adopting a tactical approach was as good as or better than not adopting it, but in 20% of years the manager would have been worse off. It is suggested that effective implementation requires understanding of these risks and highlights the point that although tactical response to a forecast may pay off on average over a period of years, there can be no guarantees for the ensuing season. The systems approach to applying climate forecasts in decision-making across the range of agricultural and natural ecosystems can be generalised to understand the system and its management understand the impact of climate variability determine opportunities for tactical management in response to seasonal forecasts evaluate worth of tactical decision options participative implementation and evaluation feedback to climate forecasting The nature of the interdisciplinary approach needed to pursue this systems approach to applying seasonal climate forecasts is discussed.