Signatures of the Venezuelan Humanitarian Crisis in the First Wave of COVID-19: Fuel Shortages and Border Migration

被引:12
|
作者
Lampo, Margarita [1 ]
Hernandez-Villena, Juan V. [2 ]
Cascante, Jaime [3 ]
Vincenti-Gonzalez, Maria F. [4 ]
Forero-Pena, David A. [5 ]
Segovia, Maikell J. [6 ]
Hampson, Katie [7 ]
Castro, Julio [6 ]
Grillet, Maria Eugenia [1 ,2 ]
机构
[1] Acad Ciencias Fis Matemat & Nat, Palacio Acad, Av Univ, Caracas 1030, Venezuela
[2] Univ Cent Venezuela, Fac Ciencias, Inst Zool & Ecol Trop, Lab Biol Vectores & Parasitos, Caracas 1058, Venezuela
[3] Univ Los Andes, Dept Ingn Biomed, Grp Biol Matemat & Computac, Bogota 111711, Colombia
[4] Univ Groningen, Univ Med Ctr Groningen, Dept Med Microbiol, NL-9713 GZ Groningen, Netherlands
[5] Biomed Res & Therapeut Vaccines Inst, Ciudad Bolivar 8001, Venezuela
[6] Univ Cent Venezuela, Fac Med, Inst Med Trop, Caracas 1058, Venezuela
[7] Univ Glasgow, Inst Biodivers Anim Hlth & Comparat Med, Glasgow G12 8QQ, Lanark, Scotland
基金
英国惠康基金;
关键词
SEI models; metapopulations; Venezuela; SARS-CoV-2; drivers of transmission; spatial incidence;
D O I
10.3390/vaccines9070719
中图分类号
R392 [医学免疫学]; Q939.91 [免疫学];
学科分类号
100102 ;
摘要
Testing and isolation have been crucial for controlling the COVID-19 pandemic. Venezuela has one of the weakest testing infrastructures in Latin America and the low number of reported cases in the country has been attributed to substantial underreporting. However, the Venezuelan epidemic seems to have lagged behind other countries in the region, with most cases occurring within the capital region and four border states. Here, we describe the spatial epidemiology of COVID-19 in Venezuela and its relation to the population mobility, migration patterns, non-pharmaceutical interventions and fuel availability that impact population movement. Using a metapopulation model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics, we explore how movement patterns could have driven the observed distribution of cases. Low within-country connectivity most likely delayed the onset of the epidemic in most states, except for those bordering Colombia and Brazil, where high immigration seeded outbreaks. NPIs slowed early epidemic growth and subsequent fuel shortages appeared to be responsible for limiting the spread of COVID-19 across the country.
引用
收藏
页数:15
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