Atmospheric and climatic hazards: Improved monitoring and prediction for disaster mitigation

The last few years have seen enormous damage and loss of life from climate and weather phenomena. The most damaging events have included the severe 1997/98 El Nino (with its near-global impacts), Hurricane Mitch, and floods in China in mid-1998. What have we learnt regarding the causes, variability, and predictability, of these phenomena? Can we predict the occurrence of these extreme events, and thereby mitigate their damage? This paper reviews what we have learnt in the last decade or so regarding the predictability of these climate and weather extremes. The view starts with the largest (El Nino) scales, and works towards the scale of individual thunderstorms. It focuses on the practical outcomes of our improved knowledge with regard to decreasing the impact of natural disasters, rather than describing in detail the scientific knowledge underlying these outcomes. The paper concludes with a discussion of some of the factors that still restrict our ability to mitigate the deleterious effects of atmospheric and climatic hazards.