Evolutionary Assessment on the Sustainable Development of Earthquake Disaster Areas: Based on the Scene of Wenchuan Earthquake Derivative Effect

Due to the Wenchuan earthquake and its derivative effect, the development of quake-hit areas meets great challenges. Studying on the evolutionary sustainable development of the areas gives objective criteria to assess the degree of recovery and the, level of future development, which are usually assessed by calculating ecological footprint (EF) and ecological carrying capacity (ECC). However, few studies used evolution research to study them, moreover, researchers often adopted the international general calculation factor as a parameters of EF, which isn't able for micro-regions. This research, taking Mianzhu County as object of study, used the improved model in which production factor and balanced factor were localized, and took GIS as the auxiliary methods to analyze the status of per capital ecological footprint and per capita ecological carrying capacity from 2007 to 2014 in order to describe the evolutionary tendencies of EF and ECC. The research conclusions showed that, on the whole, the level of per capital ecological had obvious declined since the Wenchuan earthquake, and its degree of recovery had been slowly under the scenarios of the disasters derivative effect. At the same time, there were large changes in the per capita ecological footprint of cultivated land as well as that of building land. The former indicated the typical characteristics of regional economic growth which depended on the development of agriculture, and the latter implied that a lot of resources had spent on the infrastructure construction during the years of restoration and reconstruction. Analyzing the evolutionary trend of ecological deficit based on the scene of earthquake derivative effect, we find the deficit in the evolution scenario under strong intervention such as increasing the planting areas was bigger than natural development. Administrators should understand the real situation of development and recognize the process more profoundly, considering the harmonious development based on the evolutionary ECC to make the strategy and response.