Dynamic analysis of Ecological Footprint and its prediction using the Grey Model in a coalmining area (Huaibei city, China)

Ecological footprint model is a new method of measuring sustainable development in a region. Ecological Footprints (EFs) and Ecological Capacities (ECs) were calculated from 1996 to 2005 in Huaibei by EF model and were predicted from 2006 to 2010 by the Grey Model (GM). The results show that EF per capita in Huaibei soars from 1.7790 hectare in 1996 to 5.1204 hectare in 2005 at an annual rate of 18.78%. Meantime, EC per capita slightly decreased from 0.3647 hectare in 1996 to 0.3122 hectare in 2005 at an annual rate of 1.44%. According to the forecasting based on GM, in the next 5 years, the increasing rate per year of EF will add up to 8.62% but by contrast the decreasing rate per year of EC will reach 1.43%. Therefore, it is concluded that Ecological Deficits (ED) per capita will continue to enlarge, with fossil energy land still being the most important cause in 2010.