Impact of Climate on Vegetation Change in a Mountain Grassland - Succession and Fluctuation

Traditionally managed Central European mountain grasslands have high nature conservation value because of their high species diversity. Whether these grasslands and their diversity can be preserved will depend on many factors, including how plant species composition responds to changes in climate conditions. To differentiate between fluctuations and directional succession in the herbaceous layer composition of a Romanian Festuca rubra L. and Agrostis capillarts L. grassland in Apuseni and whether any compositional changes can be related CO climate. The vegetation of permanent plots was recorded annually between 2004 and 2012. Temperature and precipitation were measured by an automatic weather station at the study site. Cluster analysis, Indicator Species Analysis and the co-dominance ratio between F. rubra L. - A. capillaris were analysed. The compositional data was related to the climate variables. Thresholds of relevant climate variables differentiating between clusters of plots with similar vegetation composition were determined using classification tree methods. The vegetation composition in our plots within the years 2004, 2005 and 2008 were different from each other. From 2004 to 2006 directional succession could be identified; however the major patterns to emerge were fluctuations which occurred over the whole study period. Compositional shifts included A. capillaris L. and F. rubra L exchanging co-dominance with each other. The MOSE important variables differentiating clusters were temperature during the dormant and vegetation periods and water balance during the vegetation period. It can be concluded that compositional shifts among years were largely a consequence of year to year climatic fluctuations; however, there is some evidence for a directional shift during the early years of the study.