Cryptocurrency Market: Overreaction to News and Herd Instincts

被引:1
|
作者
Malkina, Marina Yu [1 ]
Ovchinnikov, Vyacheslav N. [1 ,2 ]
机构
[1] Lobachevsky State Univ Nizhni Novgorod, 7 Univ Skiy Per, Nizhnii Novgorod 603000, Russia
[2] Minist Finance Russian Federat, Financial Res Inst, 3 Nastasinskiy Per, Moscow 127006, Russia
来源
EKONOMICHESKAYA POLITIKA | 2020年 / 15卷 / 03期
关键词
cryptocurrencies; market (in)efficiency; overreaction to news; asymmetry effect; herding behavior; learning effect; BITCOIN; VOLATILITY; INEFFICIENCY; RETURNS; MEMORY;
D O I
10.18288/1994-5124-2020-3-74-105
中图分类号
F [经济];
学科分类号
02 ;
摘要
We studied the specific properties of the cryptocurrency market. Guided by the concept of implied volatility, we investigated the asymmetric reaction of the market to news. Based on the concept of realized volatility, we verified the hypothesis of herding behavior in the market. To test the properties of the market, we used a combination of methods, starting from the analysis of statistics of search queries, interpreted as proxies of information demand from professional market participants and the "wide crowd", and ending with advanced Markov-Switching GARCH models and heterogeneous autoregressive models of realized volatility (HAR-RV-J-models). As a result, we found various types of asymmetric reactions of the cryptocurrency market to news related to both the general direction of its dynamics (growth or decrease) and the amplitude of return fluctuations (high or low volatility). During the upward price rally and overheating of the market, investors deliberately avoided the bad news; thereby the asymmetry in the cryptocurrency market was inverse (to the adopted leverage effect). On the contrary, during the downward price rally, market participants exhibited an overreaction to bad news. In addition, the asymmetric reaction to the news observed during the period of low market volatility actually disappeared when the amplitude of cryptocurrency return volatility increased. The behavior of short-term investors was also varied in the study period. While during the growth of the market, small speculators were more likely to follow their own trading strategies, during the hype they borrowed the trading practices of the largest players. We also revealed the effect of training among small investors: over time, they became less prone to provocations from large players, which did not allow the 2019 rally to surpass its counterpart in 2017 in terms of both return oscillations and duration.
引用
收藏
页码:74 / 105
页数:32
相关论文
共 50 条
  • [1] HERD INSTINCTS
    JOCH, A
    BYTE, 1995, 20 (08): : 83 - 83
  • [2] Herd behavior in cryptocurrency market: evidence of network effect
    Wanidwaranan, Phasin
    Termprasertsakul, Santi
    REVIEW OF BEHAVIORAL FINANCE, 2024, 16 (03) : 406 - 423
  • [3] Giving in to herd instincts
    不详
    ABA JOURNAL, 1998, 84 : 96 - 97
  • [4] Do news headlines matter in the cryptocurrency market?
    Anamika, Anamika
    Subramaniam, Sowmya
    APPLIED ECONOMICS, 2022, 54 (54) : 6322 - 6338
  • [5] Impact of Liquidity and Investors Sentiment on Herd Behavior in Cryptocurrency Market
    Bogdan, Sinisa
    Brmalj, Natali
    Mujacevic, Elvis
    INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF FINANCIAL STUDIES, 2023, 11 (03):
  • [6] Instincts of the Herd in Peace and War
    Park, Robert E.
    AMERICAN JOURNAL OF SOCIOLOGY, 1916, 22 (03) : 410 - 412
  • [7] Instincts of the Herd in Peace and War
    Henning, Hans
    ZEITSCHRIFT FUR PSYCHOLOGIE UND PHYSIOLOGIE DER SINNESORGANE, 1919, 81 : 113 - 113
  • [8] Instincts of the Herd in Peace and War
    Kelsey, Carl
    ANNALS OF THE AMERICAN ACADEMY OF POLITICAL AND SOCIAL SCIENCE, 1917, 69 : 289 - 290
  • [9] Instincts of the Herd in Peace and War
    不详
    EUGENICS REVIEW, 1917, 9 (02): : 142 - 143
  • [10] INSTINCTS OF THE HERD IN PEACE AND WAR
    White
    PSYCHOANALYTIC REVIEW, 1917, 4 (01): : 122 - 124