Measuring infrastructure and community recovery rate using Bayesian methods: A case study of power systems resilience

With the increasing frequency and severity of disasters resulting especially from natural hazards and impacting both infrastructure systems and communities, thus challenging their timely recovery, there is a strong need to prepare for more effective response and recovery Communities have especially struggled to understand the aspects of recovery patterns for different systems and prepare accordingly. Therefore, it is essential to develop models that are able to measure and estimate the recovery trajectory for a certain community or infrastructure network given system characteristics and event information. The objective of the study is to deploy the Poisson Bayesian kernel model developed and tested in earlier work in risk analysis to measure the recovery rate of a system. In this paper, the model is implemented and tested on a resilience modeling case study of power systems. The model is validated using a comparison to other count data models such as Poisson generalized linear model and the negative binomial generalized linear model.