The Pregnancy-Related Mortality Impact of a Total Abortion Ban in the United States: A Research Note on Increased Deaths Due to Remaining Pregnant

In this research note, I esti mate one com po nent of the mor tal ity impact of deny ing all wanted induced abor tions in the United States. This esti mate quantifies the mag ni tude of an increase in preg nancy-related deaths that would occur solely because of the greater mor tal ity risk of con tinu ing a preg nancy rather than hav ing a legal induced abor tion. Using published sta tis tics on preg nancy-related mor tal ity ratios, births, and abor tions, I esti mate U.S. preg nancy-related deaths by race and ethnic ity before and in the first and sub se quent years of a hypo thet i cal total abor tion ban. The num ber of esti mated deaths fol low ing a total abor tion ban is deter mined by assum ing three con di tions: that all wanted induced abor tions are denied, that each abor tion denied leads to 0.8 births, and that there is a cor re spond ing increase in exposure to preg nancy-related mor tal ity. I find that in the first year of such a ban, esti mated preg nancy-related deaths would increase from 675 to 724 (49 addi tional deaths, representing a 7% increase), and in sub se quent years to 815 (140 addi tional deaths, for a 21% increase). Non-His panic Black people would expe ri ence the greatest increase in deaths (a 33% increase in sub se quent years). Estimated preg nancy-related deaths would increase for all races and ethnicities exam ined. Overall, deny ing all wanted induced abor tions in the United States would increase preg nancy-related mor tal ity sub stan tially, even if the rate of unsafe abor tion did not increase.