Adaptive mixed-integer programming unit commitment strategy for determining the value of forecasting

被引:46
作者
Delarue, Erik [1 ]
D'haeseleer, William [1 ]
机构
[1] Katholieke Univ Leuven, Div Appl Mech & Energy Convers, B-3001 Heverlee, Belgium
关键词
electricity-generation modelling; unit commitment (UC); mixed-integer linear programming (MILP); forecasting;
D O I
10.1016/j.apenergy.2007.07.007
中图分类号
TE [石油、天然气工业]; TK [能源与动力工程];
学科分类号
0807 ; 0820 ;
摘要
This paper presents the development of a method to determine the value of forecasting (for load, wind power, etc.) in electricity-generation. An adaptive unit commitment (UC) strategy has been developed for this aim. An electricity generator faces demand with a given uncertainty. Forecasts are made to meet this load at the lowest cost. The adaptive UC strategy can be described as follows. Each hour, the generating company constructs a new forecast for a fixed number of hours. We assume that the first forecasted hour is in fact predicted correctly. For these forecasted hours, an optimal UC schedule is determined (given the on/off states of power plants for the current hour). The solution for the first hour (i.e., the one that was predicted correctly) is retained, and a new forecast is made. A 15,000 MW power system is used in a 168 hour (one-week) schedule. The UC problems presented in this work are solved through a Mixed-Integer Linear Programming (MILP) approach. In the first case, the effect of limited (correct) forecasting is investigated. Forecasts are made 100% correctly, but the UC scheme is built modularly and compared with the reference case, where the UC problem is solved for the one-week problem as a whole. Depending on the number of forecasted hours, solutions differ by up to 0.5% with the reference case. In a second case, when a certain error is imposed on the forecasts made (up to 5%), the deviations from the optimal solution become larger and amount in certain cases to almost 1%. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
引用
收藏
页码:171 / 181
页数:11
相关论文
共 17 条
[1]   Electric load forecasting: literature survey and classification of methods [J].
Alfares, HK ;
Nazeeruddin, M .
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF SYSTEMS SCIENCE, 2002, 33 (01) :23-34
[2]  
[Anonymous], OPERATIONS RES APPL
[3]  
*BFE, 2002, STAT JAARB 2002
[4]   A computationally efficient mixed-integer linear formulation for the thermal unit commitment problem [J].
Carrion, Miguel ;
Arroyo, Jose M. .
IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER SYSTEMS, 2006, 21 (03) :1371-1378
[5]  
DELARUE E, UNPUB ENERGY
[6]  
Ferris M.C., 2011, MATLAB GAMS INTERFAC
[7]  
*GAMS DEV CORP, 2006, SOLV MAN
[8]  
Hobbs B.F., 2001, NEXT GENERATION ELEC
[9]   Analysis of the value for unit commitment of improved load forecasts [J].
Hobbs, BF ;
Jitprapaikulsarn, S ;
Konda, S ;
Chankong, V ;
Loparo, KA ;
Maratukulam, DJ .
IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER SYSTEMS, 1999, 14 (04) :1342-1348
[10]  
*IEA, 2005, WORLD EN OUTL 2005 M