Investigating the potential effectiveness of earthquake early warning across Europe

The viability of earthquake early warning (EEW) in Europe is highly dependent on the magnitude of the ongoing earthquake and the ground-shaking threshold for alert issuance. The potential effectiveness of EEW is highest for Turkey, Italy, and Greece. Here we assess the potential implementation of earthquake early warning (EEW) across Europe, where there is a clear need for measures that mitigate seismic risk. EEW systems consist of seismic networks and mathematical models/algorithms capable of real-time data telemetry that alert stakeholders (e.g., civil-protection authorities, the public) to an earthquake's nucleation seconds before shaking occurs at target sites. During this time, actions can be taken that might decrease detrimental impacts. We investigate distributions of EEW lead times available across various parts of the Euro-Mediterranean region, based on seismicity models and seismic network density. We then determine the potential usefulness of these times for EEW purposes by defining their spatial relationship with population exposure, seismic hazard, and an alert accuracy proxy, using well-established earthquake-engineering tools for measuring the impacts of earthquakes. Our mapped feasibility results show that, under certain conditions, EEW could be effective for some parts of Europe.