Assessing the profitability of different crop protection strategies in cotton: Case study results from Shandong Province, China

The paper compares the economic performance of different crop protection strategies in cotton including the use of transgenic varieties in Shandong Province, China. By means of a Monte Carlo simulation model a comparison was made between conventional insecticide strategies, planting of bollworm-resistant Bt varieties and a strategy of combining both technologies. To account for the observed variation in the toxin content of the Bt varieties in China, two different quality levels of Bt seed are included in the model. The data for the model are season-long records of input use and yield of 150 small-scale cotton producers in five villages in Shandong Province, which are complemented with a survey of Chinese cotton experts. Results show that the high cost pest control strategy based on expensive, good quality Bt seeds is economically inferior to low cost strategies. Scenarios for different pest population levels were included and while the use of low quality Bt seed with need-based applications of insecticides is the dominant control strategy for the normal and high pest pressure scenarios, the use of non-Bt varieties performs well under low pest pressure conditions. These results imply the need to include agro-ecosystem aspects such as pest pressure conditions and the impact of control interventions on both pests and natural enemies in the assessment of pest control strategies. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.