Optimizing management of goats and oak trees for sustainability and community's welfare: a case study from Zagros, Iran

A deterministic dynamic bio-economic model was used to analyse different management options for goats and charcoal production in a forest in Zagros, Iran. The study sought optimal management options from a local community point of view considering net present value (NPV) of income from sale of goats and charcoal under different restrictions on forest harvest imposed by the state. The model was run under six model scenarios: (1) business as usual (BAU), (2) no state intervention, (3) no forest harvesting, (4) strict quota, (5) medium quota and (6) loose quota on charcoal production. The scenarios' results were compared based on four numeric criteria (NPV of income from goats and charcoal, development of standing volume and tree size diversity in forest, interaction between goat population and oak forests) and one subjective criterion (state budget for managing forest). The results indicated that two main challenges exist in forest management in Zagros; (1) to determine the balance between local communities' welfare and biological stability of the forest and (2) to choose between a cheap management regime prohibiting wood harvest but implicitly accepting some illegal charcoal production and a more expensive, but legal, harvest regulation through charcoal production quota. We conclude that the BAU scenario, where forest harvesting was prohibited de jure, but some illegal charcoal production was still undertaken, was the only viable management, which also is practically acceptable by both state and local communities.