An Index for the Early Warning of Nodal Outage Risk of Transmission System by Data Driven Method

Accurate prognosis technique is helpful in the operation of system with high share of intermittent renewable generations. Available research lack of outage risk early warning index at transmission system level from a perspective of node. In this paper, starting from the load node point of view and combining data-driven methods, a nodal connectivity based outage risk index is proposed. It evaluates the connectivity between load node and generators it could reach. The index decreases along with the increase of operating pressure. When it drops below a critical value, nodal load shed starts. Through our method, the non-linear reliability index based on nodal load-shedding is linearized to enable the operator to better understand the risk of outage at different locations of the system. The index is calculated through a data-driven method by using historical real time measurements at each node and system topology information, which makes it more suitable for online risk assessment and prediction. Simulation results by IEEE-118 bus test system show the feasibility of the proposed method.